The Los Angeles Lakers (West, 1st) face the Orlando Magic (East, 3rd) in an epic seven-game, 2-3-2 format battle, for the Larry O'Brien Championship trophy. Who can and will win it all? Let's take a look from all corners and perspectives.
Head-to-Head:
Lakers: 65-17 Record (36-5 Home, 29-12 Road)
Playoff Record: 12-6 (8-2 Home, 4-4 Road; 4-1, 4-3, 4-2)
Magic: 59-23 Record (32-9 Home, 27-14 Road)
Playoff Record: 12-7 (7-2 Home, 5-5 Road; 4-2, 4-3, 4-2)
Lakers-Magic Regular Season Series: Magic lead series 2-0.
We now go down to two teams who have good records both in the regular season and in the playoffs. With Cleveland eliminated, the Lakers now hold the best regular season record in this year's postseason, helping them out by giving them home court advantage. Similarly Orlando's record is pretty impressive, considering that for a few weeks, they were able to hold on to the top spot of the Eastern Conference, putting behind Cleveland and Boston until those two teams were again able to lead the East in terms of records.
Their playoff records show a lot of ups and downs, as well as their learning and experience that they gained in these post season games. The Lakers were hounded by inconsistency for the rest of the postseason, but in their last two games, they proved that for the Finals, they can really bring out the best in them and play. Orlando, on the other hand, showed that they can handle pressure exerted by the best teams in the East. They were able to handle the difficult Boston Celtics and finished them for good in their own home in the seventh game, and defeated Cleveland by stealing a road win in the first game. Both of them stand on equal ground.
However, the Magic have a real edge against the Lakers when it comes to their regular season series, albeit very slim. The Magic won twice, but with a small difference (Magic's lead in those two games only amounted to seven points). However, it would be near-negligible, since the Magic lost Jameer Nelson, who was the difference in those 2 games (if he would play, it is sure that he wouldn't be in his best form and could be a problem for the Magic), and the Lakers have provided solutions for their matchup problems and guarding the pick-and-roll. The only thing good about the Magic being 2-0 in the season is that they can give a scare to the Lakers who are itching for their championship ring. Last year, they were 0-2 against Boston, and they were beaten up 4-2. How about now?
Advantage: Orlando Magic
Offense
The Lakers' offense can wreck the defense. Period, and that's just about it. They've got lots of weapons up in their sleeves. Almost all the players in the rotation can work up the triangle and get inside shots easily. Shooters are not a problem, either. That is why they were crowned the kings of offense all through out the season, in spite of being inconsistent and lackadaisical most of the second half of the regular season and the rest of the postseason.
They have the most versatile players in the league when it comes to offense. Kobe Bryant and Trevor Ariza can muscle their way on the post and at the same time hit quick jumpers and open threes. Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom undoubtedly are the best frontcourt crew, being able to score in and out of the paint at all times. When push comes to shove, these guys can either face their defender or serve as double or triple team decoys to give way for other teammates to score. Offensively, as long as Kobe controls the offense, the Lakers will be fine and dangerous.
Orlando has its own offensive weapons as well. They have Dwight Howard, who really dominated the paint for most of the postseason. All through out no one was able to guard him well. If they were able to contain Howard with double- and triple-teams, there will always be an open shooter that can bring down the house with a midrange jumper or, more dangerously, a quick-hitting three. Rashard Lewis, Rafer Alston, and Hedo Turkoglu can do that effortlessly. Thus, on their side of the court, there could be no problem for this team as long as they hit their shots.
One thing that Orlando's very potent offense can do is to force the defense to stretch, and that is very important considering that in reality, they have weapons on all areas of the court. Each of the Magic's players have found their perfect place in the court, and add to that the fact that Turkoglu's perfect place is everywhere. The "Turkish Michael Jordan" can either go around and search for a midrange spot, or, alternatively, distract the defense and force them to leave Howard or one of the shooters open. If this happens, then Orlando offense can be very scary. If not, then Orlando might just resort to force threes into going in, and that won't be effective in the Finals. What we need are sure shots, not hesitant ones.
As we talk Finals here, we have to give this to the Lakers. Undoubtedly, they have the offensive weapons, and they can experiment in any way they can without ruining their offensive momentum (remember Lakers-Nuggets Game 5?). They can switch roles and distract the defense. Kobe can be a scorer or a triangle facilitator, or he could be just there, waiting for defenders to pick on him and pass the ball to an open Lamar Odom or Pau Gasol. On all angles, Lakers have this one.
Advantage: Los Angeles Lakers
Defense
One thing that went very remarkably for the Lakers during their past playoff games was their impressive defense that was way better last season. The team was able to make stops, steal the ball (Trevor Ariza, anyone?), block shots, and close games by putting pressure on last minute inbound plays. They were able to take a good grip of the Utah Jazz's shooters for five games (if not for Deron Williams last-minute shot, the Jazz could have been swept for good). Against the Rockets, Ron Artest and Luis Scola both had problems with their scoring. Denver, on the other hand, was held down to less than 100 points, rendering their explosive effort against New Orleans and Dallas useless.
Individual defensive performances have to be noted here. The small forwards Trevor Ariza and Luke Walton already did a good job on defense, as they never let anyone pass by them easily. Kobe Bryant, with his usual defensive swagger, locked his man down and limited them to, most effectively, low point production (remember Ron-Ron and Melo?). Shannon Brown also did a great job on securing the D for the Lakers, being the big difference in the Lakers bench. If the Lakers defense work perfectly in the series, then Orlando has no choice but to let Howard score. And who would forget Pau "Mr. Softie" Gasol, who has already toughened himself up in this postseason series?
However, Orlando has the better end in defense. With the Defensive Player of the Year in their arsenal and a good, inspiring job on guarding LeBron James of the Cleveland Cavaliers, they could make an impenetrable wall out of themselves. During the rest of the East series, their defense was more than laudable. When they said they could force turnovers, they did it. When they positioned themselves for defensive and offensive boards, there's this big chance that the ball is theirs. And when Howard concentrates on his man, the paint would be an impossible scoring area. That's the Magic D. And this kind of D is quite scary. Orlando can destroy rotations and force players to sit and stand at the bench unnecessarily. They could irritate inside players and distract shooters. They could work out on the other team's offensive adjustments and still have tem come up with bad shots and turnovers. Defense Orlando-style is dangerous, just don't have Howard foul and foul.
Advantage: Orlando Magic
Frontcourt
The triple frontcourt combination of Gasol-Bynum-Odom can do about much damage from both sides of the court, that is, if they play at the level that they are expected to be at in this Finals series.
It is evident that Gasol will have to play as the Best Supporting Actor for this series. He has already been a big help to the Mamba by either opening up the paint for him or providing a high-percentage scoring opportunity. He has crashed the boards and rescued the team a lot of times by securing possessions and making those 2nd chance points. In fact, he is just another problem for the defensive team to overcome in this postseason. Andrew Bynum, on the other hand, seemed to have problems of his own as he entered the postseason, but there was room for improvement during the rest of the playoffs. In spite of bad numbers, he can find himself a place where he can score and a man whom he can defend. But more dominant in this postseason, though inconsistently, was Lamar Odom, who proved to be the difference in this postseason. In good shape, he brings LA to victory; however, if he is in bad shape, then the team may not be that good.
Of the three, it is Odom who carries the responsibility of providing support and plays both in and out of the paint. Can they hold on against the stronger bunch of Orlando big guys?
Undoubtedly, Orlando has the most dominant paint player in the league, and it is sure that they will use all of Dwight Howard's powers to get scoring opportunities inside (making sure that he gets the ball once he owns the paint) or outside (bringing it back to Orlando's shooters and dish out open threes). He has one of his best playoff performances way back in the Magic's battle against Cleveland, shooing off Anderson Varejao and Ben Wallace in their spots and forcing bad inside shots. If there is a key player for Orlando that they would want to fully use, it would be Dwight Howard.
Join Rashard Lewis into the group, and we have a dangerous inside-outside combination. Lewis has a lot of versatility and flexibility up in his sleeve. He can slam over his opponents, or resort to simple, cheap drop shots, or run around until he gets an open three from the sides. For slow forwards, Lewis can be very dangerous for the defending team, and he won't hold back a bit.
In this frontcourt combination, add the next best thing in the paint. Enter Howard's second, Marcin Gortat, who can both do inside and outside plays on the offense and defense. He once showed his skill when he dunked over LeBron James and later on blocked his shot and humiliated him. If this guy explodes, he could be the closest thing to a milder version of Dwight Howard.
While the Lakers frontcourt suffer from inconsistency, Orlando has its own share of problems. For the Lakers, a silent Lamar Odom would not merit them a win, nor is an Andrew Bynum that could only give single digit boards. Orlando, on the other hand, has to be careful with their fouls. Once Howard recklessly uses up his fouls, it would be over for them. In the same way, Rashard Lewis will be rendered useless once he is pressured, something that the Lakers can and will do anytime. However, hats off here for the Magic, simply because their best weapon lies in the frontcourt.
Advantage: Orlando Magic
Backcourt
Team up Kobe Bryant and Derek Fisher, and we have lots of Finals experience. Add a previously unknown soldier named Trevor Ariza, and we have the most powerful frontcourt combination.
It is true that Kobe alone can do the job, but we also know that he can't do it alone in the Finals, and with his frontcourt crew, he has all the help he needs. Fisher might have had a bad defensive performance in the Lakers' past two playoff opponents, but he has been largely responsible for setting up plays and doing the catch-and-shoot from beyond the arc whenever Kobe dishes it to him. Nothing much about Trevor Ariza, except that his abilities are very obvious and need no further explanation. After two steals off an inbound pass and numerous high-performance dunks and high-percentage threes, he can be labeled Kobe's best wing man. In fact, Ariza will be an important factor in the Finals, that is if he learns to attack and provide points once Kobe plays his role as the league's most dangerous decoy.
Orlando has its own recipe of backcourt treats. Now that Jameer Nelson has returned, he could potentially be a threat... Or not, considering that he was on a four-month break because of his injury. Good thing Rafer Alston can pick up his play a bit and hit threes when needed. It is the same thing we can say of the Magic's number two, Courtney Lee, who could do jumpers and threes before you can say "face mask."
But of course, the difference in the backcourt lies with Hedo Turkoglu. His quickness and accuracy from afar has already pissed off a lot of opponents. He was "Mr. Fourth Quarter," who knew how to close the game when it comes to difficult opponents like Boston and Cleveland. He can hit quick threes, attack the basket, and effectively execute the screen-and-roll. For Orlando, Hedo is the perfect asset, the key to good shots, the most explosive player of the postseason.
But the backcourt matchup winner is fairly obvious. No one can guard Kobe when he goes hot from the field. No one can even have the guts to cover both Bryant and Ariza at the same time. Eventually, both will have no problem dealing with the defense. Similarly, the Orlando backcourt couldn't attack freely with those two defending. It's either they shoot or they pass to Howard, and most of the time, they'll be forced to the former in bad places.
Advantage: Los Angeles Lakers
Bench
Back-up players, in spite of having limited playing time, can also make the difference. Even if the starters were at rest, these players can stress the opponent and give them a hard time.
And the Lakers have done that as they let their bench close out unfinished business in the court. They have Lamar Odom on the bench, and when this guy is off the pressure of the starter, he can pull off stats as that of a real starter. Eventually, if we take a look at the Lakers' good games this postseason, we can see that Lamar Odom can grab double digit scores and boards playing more or less 30 minutes a game. More reinforcements arrive in Luke Walton and Shannon Brown, who so far have greatly contributed to the Lakers' team play on both sides. While Walton can secure the D and the open side shots, Shannon Brown proved to be an offensive force who shouldn't be underestimated. And even though Jordan Farmar and Sasha Vujacic need to oil themselves up and increase their level of play, they already did well in maintaining the momentum of the Lakers in their big, crucial games.
Bench production could be one problem for the Magic, but the back-up squad would also provide problems if most of them are smoking hot in their performance. Snipers come in handy in the persons of Mickael Pietrus (who should also be commended for guarding LeBron James and Cavs' two-guards as well) and J.J. Redick (albeit playing very limited minutes). As mentioned, Marcin Gortat can establish his presence in the paint, and Jameer Nelson could give a scare. One thing that could be said of the Orlando bench is that they are the second revolver.
But this gun only has one bullet, Russian roulette-style. They do not have the same depth as that of the Lakers bench, who could play as well as the starters are. If Orlando would sit out its starters and go eye-on-eye with the Lakers bench, it would clearly show that Lakers have the more skilled, more experienced players who know how to use up their limited minutes. More importantly, the Lakers bench could greatly help their starters by going in and out of the game and still maintaining a high level of team chemistry. This one goes to Kobe's disciples.
Advantage: Los Angeles Lakers
VERDICT: The Lakers should win in 7 games. However, I am not saying this because they will surely do. I say this because they have to. They have returned to the Finals, and it is now the time for them to grab that championship regardless of who the enemy is. This time, it's a strong, tough, and physical Magic who could bring them down if they play lightly. It's time for Kobe to play like a real superstar and direct the offense and defense. The time for the Lakers to amend for their inability last season is now, and there is no other.
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